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It Just Doesn’t Add Up

I have resisted writing about Elian Gonzalez for as long as possible. The whole affair thus far has bothered me from several perspectives.

First, my gut reaction is that of most Americans: a boy belongs with his father, even if his father lives in an awful place.
Second, ever since the O.J. trial the new establishment media has shown that it positively needs stories like this to dwell on. This absolutely would not have been a "national" story ten or fifteen years ago. But all those talking heads need something to talk about, so they take what are essentially local stories and blow them up deliberately in order to keep themselves employed (think Jon-Benet).
Third, I am philosophically opposed to basing policy issues on anything that is putatively "for the children", or, in this case, the child. Indeed, it worries me to hear many conservatives arguing that we ought to base our decision on the impact on Elian of returning to Cuba. No, we should base our decision on what is in the best interests of the United States. If we begin to think otherwise, we will turn ourselves into little more than liberals with a different point of view.

So, why I am writing now? Because it just doesn’t add up. The actions of the Clinton administration just don’t add up. Try as I might, I cannot fathom the reasoning behind the brutal raid and kidnapping of Elian. Sure, we have come to expect thuggish behavior by Bill and his cronies, but that behavior usually has a reason. Applying a simple cost-benefit analysis to this action leaves me puzzled.

Pros:

Plaudits from Castro
Plaudits from every aging loony-toon left wing commie butt-kisser left in America
Projection of a "tough" image
Rescue Elian from the arms of loving relatives and the horrors of Disney World

Cons

Lost Florida for Gore in November
Hurt Hillary in New York in November
Congressional Investigations
Risked serious injury or death of non-violent protestors
May have done the only thing that would actually get the media off his side: beating up a cameraman
Potential public relations disaster
Crippled the credibility of its gun-control arguments

This is not even close to neutral, even with the good fortune of an absolute "best case scenario" outcome. Especially for an administration that thinks only in political terms, this has the makings of a political quagmire at many levels. Something else is at work here. Bill may act on impulse with cuties in the Oval Office, but every move his administration makes is stone cold calculated.

In view of the Clinton M.O., we can speculate in several directions.

He’s Creating a Distraction. Noisy and deplorable things have a tendency to happen when trouble is a-brewin’ for the Clintons. There has been an awful lot of campaign finance scandal deposing lately. But it seems that it would have to be something bigger. I suppose we should just count ourselves lucky Lazaro’s house wasn’t mistaken for a chemical weapons factory and bombed into the Stone Age.

He’s cut a deal with someone in the back room. The obvious candidate here is Fidel. Indeed, there has been some speculation that Fidel has threatened to unload another Mariel boatlift, triggering fears from Clinton’s bad experiences with the last one when he was Governor of Arkansas. I don’t think so. It smells phony, like the "He lies so much because he had to please two women as a child" excuse for his moral degeneracy. No, if he is cutting a deal, it is because of something significantly more corrupt than that.

He thinks he’s invincible. Normally we think of "lame duck" presidents as powerless. In Clinton’s case, removing the pressure of another election to win may remove the only thing that ever pointed him in the right direction (remember Welfare Reform?) It scares me to say this, but the next year may show us the uninhibited Clinton.

He is concerned with upholding the rule of law. Hee, hee, hee. Sorry, I just couldn’t resist slipping that one in there.

It is hard to overstate the impact this affair has had in "right wing nut" conservative circles. For many of us, this feels worse in

many ways than the impeachment debacle. It seems to bring into relief a stunning casual disregard for fundamental civil rights

by this administration, and the lack of response by the media, and hence the public, seems surreal.

If I could just figure out the "why"s it might seem less foreboding .